MetraWeather’s ePD forecasting system analyses over a hundred different weather models to extract, combine and place the correct emphasis on the different strengths of the best models - giving the best possible temperature and wind forecasts
MetraWeather customers need to know not only what the most likely weather outcome is, but also the potential for any significant variations, based on what is currently known (and unknown) about the current state of the atmosphere.
MetraWeather’s Enhanced Probability Distribution (ePD) forecasting system analyses over one hundred different weather models using a short time series of historical data and applies statistical techniques to extract, combine and place the correct emphasis on the different strengths of the best models.
Every temperature and wind forecast is expressed as a full probability distribution, from which MetraWeather extracts the most likely outcome as well as reliable confidence intervals of all possible outcomes.
Here is a live temperature forecast for tomorrow’s maximum temperature at Heathrow in London to show you what we mean. The mean value of this probability distribution is the most likely outcome and the one that will minimise our forecast error over time, resulting in the greatest forecast accuracy.
We can also extract a confidence interval and event threshold from the above graph. For example, we have 90 percent confidence that the maximum temperature will fall between the fifth and ninety-fifth percentiles.
The probabilities from the ePD system have proven reliability, meaning a five per cent probability will come off one-twentieth of the time and a 90 percent probability will come off nine times out of ten. This allows decision makers to assess the risk of adverse weather events and take action.
The ePD system creates these distributions for temperature and wind out to 15 days in the future. We can do the same for hourly temperatures and wind speeds.
In addition to temperature and wind forecasts from the ePD system, we can also provide forecasts of atmospheric pressure, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation and derivatives such as heating degree days using our own high resolution models out to 72 hours and the world’s best global models from 72 hours out to 15 days.
Contact us now to discuss weather solutions tailored to your particular needs.