Correlation studies: measuring weather impacts on UK beverage sales

Demand forecasting helps improve supply chain and distribution logistics

In 2014, one of the world’s leading multinational beverage, brewing and consumer product companies instigated a major sales and weather correlations study with MetraWeather UK. 

MetraWeather was referred by leading supermarket chain ASDA.

Following a successful correlation study undertaken in Europe, the brewer sought to ascertain if it was possible to optimise their beverage supply chain management and distribution networks by applying a demand forecasting simulation based upon particular weather parameters.

The study, commissioned from MetraWeather UK in Reading, Berkshire, focused upon supermarket sales data for five beverage types across the UK.

MetraWeather processed three years of client-supplied sales data, which had been corrected for sales anomalies due to promotional campaigns, and eliminated sales anomalies arising from seasonal cycles.

That statistical data was then correlated with observational temperature, solar radiation, cloud cover and precipitation weather data and climatological norms.

The study focused on the six summer months, as this was the period when weather was shown to become the major influencing factor on consumer buying behaviour.

From the analysis it was possible to create a demand forecast equation, which behaved well over the three years of study with many of the uncertainties explained when overlaid with other likely causes of changed buyer behaviour, such as increased purchases on Bank Holiday weekends and around major sporting events. 

MetraWeather specialises in assisting retailers to correlate and measure the impact of weather events at the checkout. Leading UK retailers receive MetraWeather forecast guidance and insights to help optimise weather opportunities, and mitigate or hedge degrees of risk and loss as a consequence of weather-related disruptions to footfall, purchasing behaviour and supply chain logistics.

Contact us now to discuss retail weather solutions tailored to your particular needs.

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Correlations studies: measuring weather impacts at retail

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