Forecasts and guidance for European energy traders

There's a change in the weather

Weather has always been a fundamental driver energy trading. Weather guidance is becoming progressively more sophisticated and accurate than ever anticipated. The distillation of big data, quantitative analysis and increased computer power has created a new generation of weather intelligence solutions.

MetraWeather has built an enviable reputation developing forecasting products at the conjunction of science, technology and commerce that deliver relevant, insightful guidance to traders and energy generators.

Users of our suite of forecast services can also be supported with exclusive, one-on-one daily conversations with experienced meteorologists on the MetraWeather forecasting desk who have access to up-to-the-minute data. These conversations promote unique insights and discussion about ‘what lies behind the numbers’.

Six Services for Energy traders

1. MetraWeather Synoptic Briefing

This daily briefing outlines anomalous events across Europe for the next 14 days and focuses on temperature deviations from climate normal. The guidance includes a synoptic discussion (the ‘why’ as well as the ‘what’) and an alternate scenario analysis that answers two key questions:

  • If the obvious doesn’t happen, what will happen?
  • What else could happen?

The briefing also features a renewables section discussing a probabilistic wind forecast for Germany; solar energy in Benelux and Germany; and Scandinavian precipitation.

The briefing is completed with a single page summary table with reference to how today’s forecast has changed from yesterday.

2. MetraWeather Exchange

Boost your MetraWeather briefings with an exclusive, daily, one-on-one conversation with a specialist meteorologist. These conversations are highly valued by our trading clients across Europe and provide a unique lens on specific facets of your forecasts and what the data is telling us. Exchange helps inform your trading position and brings expert analysis and answers to your questions that competing traders will never hear.  

3. MetraWeather Wind Forecast

Traders need to know not only what the most likely weather outcome is, but also to quantify the potential for significant variations. The MetraWeather Wind Forecast is based on an enhanced probability distribution (ePD), multi-model forecast. The forecast is extracted the most likely outcome as well as reliable confidence intervals of possible outcomes.

4. MetraWeather 32-Day Forecast

This forecast provides insight into the Euroean Centre 32-day analysis. It includes an analysis and insights into background synoptic conditions, together with guidance about the wind, solar radiation and precipitation forecasts. The 32-day Forecast is based almost entirely on a comparison to climate average meaning attention is focused on significant weather events.

5. MetraWeather Seasonal Forecast

The Seasonal Forecast leverages the valuable (and not widely distributed) data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system (System 4). It provides the astute broker searching the horizon, with a probabilistic forecast of temperatures and rainfall seven months ahead. This forecast also discusses teleconnection indexes and other global circulation phenomenon such as El Nino/La Nina.

6. Weather Education for Energy Traders

This MetraWeather curated, five-module training programme is designed expressly for energy traders. In these sessions we explore:

  • core meteorological principles
  • European weather patterns
  • deterministic and ensemble modelling
  • model behaviour and characteristics
  • skill scoring and understanding changeability.

Inform your trading with superior weather intelligence. Pilot a MetraWeather energy trading forecast and guidance solution.

Contact us now to discuss weather solutions tailored to your particular needs.

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